CGCarlyle Group Inc.

Investment Advice

Revenue: $4.8B; 12% YoY
Operating margin: —
EBITDA: —
Market cap: $14.2B
Employees: 2,500; $2M revenue each
Net debt / EBITDA: —; $979M net debt
AI in 10-K: 3.0; mentions per 10K words

Takeover score 2 of 13

Fixable underperformance 1 of 7

TSR below peersNo
2 of 5 years
3+ of last 5 years
High CEO pay despite TSRNo
—
Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
Earnings not backed by cashYes
-405% of net income
Cash flow under 80% of net income
Dilutive SBCNo
8% of revenue
Over 10% of revenue
Payouts exceed cash flowNo
-36% of cash flow
Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
Goodwill-heavyNo
0% of assets
Over 40% of assets
Shareholder dissentNo
82% lowest support
Any vote under 80% support

Buyer economics 0 of 4

Low revenue per employeeNo
$2M · 78th pct
Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
Quiet on AINo
3.0 per 10K words · 69th pct
Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
Net cashNo
—
More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
Buyout-sizedNo
$14.2B market cap
Market cap $500M–$5B

Catalysts 1 of 2

Active 13DNo
0 filings
Active-intent 13D in 18 months
Net insider sellingYes
−$3.8B net
Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Financials

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	Trend
Revenue	$8.8B	$4.4B	$3.0B	$5.4B	$4.8B	12%
Net income	$3.0B	$1.2B	−$608M	$1.0B	$809M	21%
Operating cash flow	$1.8B	−$379M	$205M	−$760M	−$3.3B	331%
Capex	$41M	$41M	$67M	$78M	$99M	28%
Stock-based comp	$163M	$154M	$249M	$468M	$375M	20%
Buybacks	$162M	$186M	$204M	$555M	$687M	24%
Dividends	$356M	$444M	$498M	$503M	$505M	0.4%

Deal filings

None.

13D filers

Filed	Filer	Form	Stake	Intent
Apr 17, 2025	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SCHEDULE 13D/A	0.0%	Active
Nov 15, 2024	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	37.4%	Active
Mar 5, 2024	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	39.0%	Active
Jun 14, 2022	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	42.1%	Active
Nov 19, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	43.7%	Active
Aug 31, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	45.4%	Active
Aug 17, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	46.8%	Active
Aug 6, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	48.0%	Active
Jul 29, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	50.4%	Active
Jul 13, 2021	Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.	SC 13D/A	54.6%	Active

Insider trading

Open-market buys, 12 mo: $0 · 0
Open-market sells, 12 mo: $3.8B · 7
Net: −$3.8B

Pay vs performance

Year	CEO total comp	Comp actually paid	TSR (indexed)	Peer TSR
FY2025	—	—	220	196
FY2024	—	—	183	187
FY2023	—	—	143	135
FY2022	—	—	100	110
FY2021	—	—	178	141