ESTCElastic N.V.
Services-Prepackaged Software
- Revenue
- $1.7B
- 17% YoY
- Operating margin
- -1.9%
- 48% YoY
- EBITDA
- −$30M
- 41% YoY
- Market cap
- $10.2B
- Employees
- 4,019
- $433K revenue each
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
- −$309M net debt
- AI in 10-K
- 27.7
- mentions per 10K words
Takeover score 5 of 13
Fixable underperformance 3 of 7
- TSR below peersYes5 of 5 years3+ of last 5 years
- High CEO pay despite TSRNo$8M medianMedian CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
- Earnings not backed by cashNo89% of net incomeCash flow under 80% of net income
- Dilutive SBCYes17% of revenueOver 10% of revenue
- Payouts exceed cash flowYes104% of cash flowBuybacks + dividends over cash flow
- Goodwill-heavyNo12% of assetsOver 40% of assets
- Shareholder dissentNo84% lowest supportAny vote under 80% support
Buyer economics 0 of 4
- Low revenue per employeeNo$433K · 49th pctBottom quartile of its SIC industry
- Quiet on AINo27.7 per 10K words · 100th pctBottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
- Net cashNo—More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
- Buyout-sizedNo$10.2B market capMarket cap $500M–$5B
Catalysts 2 of 2
- Active 13DYes6 filingsActive-intent 13D in 18 months
- Net insider sellingYes−$435M netNet sales over $10M in 12 months
Financials
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $862M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | 17% |
| Operating income | −$174M | −$219M | −$130M | −$55M | −$33M | 39% |
| Net income | −$236K | $62K | −$108K | $368K | $368M | 99900% |
| Operating cash flow | $6M | $36M | $149M | $266M | $327M | 23% |
| Capex | $2M | $3M | $3M | $4M | $5M | 17% |
| Stock-based comp | $3M | $204M | $239M | $258M | $298M | 16% |
| Buybacks | — | — | $0 | $0 | $340M |
Deal filings
None.
13D filers
| Filed | Filer | Form | Stake | Intent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D/A | 4.9% | Active |
| Oct 6, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D | 5.2% | Active |
| Sep 2, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D/A | 4.9% | Active |
| Aug 20, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D/A | 5.2% | Active |
| Mar 3, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D/A | 6.2% | Active |
| Jan 26, 2026 | PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA | SCHEDULE 13D | 5.0% | Active |
Insider trading
- Open-market buys, 12 mo
- $710K · 3
- Open-market sells, 12 mo
- $436M · 63
- Net
- −$435M
Pay vs performance
| Year | CEO total comp | Comp actually paid | TSR (indexed) | Peer TSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $10M | $4M | 38 | 257 |
| FY2024 | $6M | $2M | 71 | 172 |
| FY2023 | — | — | 85 | 151 |
| FY2022 | — | — | 47 | 110 |
| FY2021 | — | — | 63 | 102 |