MRNAModerna, Inc.

Biological Products, (no Diagnostic Substances)

Revenue: $1.9B; 40% YoY
Operating margin: -158.1%; 30% YoY
EBITDA: −$2.9B; 24% YoY
Market cap: $88.5B
Employees: 680,000; $3K revenue each
Net debt / EBITDA: —; −$1.1B net debt
AI in 10-K: 5.6; mentions per 10K words

Takeover score 4 of 13

Fixable underperformance 2 of 7

TSR below peersNo
—
3+ of last 5 years
High CEO pay despite TSRNo
—
Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
Earnings not backed by cashNo
—
Cash flow under 80% of net income
Dilutive SBCYes
25% of revenue
Over 10% of revenue
Payouts exceed cash flowNo
-0% of cash flow
Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
Goodwill-heavyNo
0% of assets
Over 40% of assets
Shareholder dissentYes
65% lowest support
Any vote under 80% support

Buyer economics 1 of 4

Low revenue per employeeYes
$3K · 16th pct
Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
Quiet on AINo
5.6 per 10K words · 85th pct
Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
Net cashNo
—
More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
Buyout-sizedNo
$88.5B market cap
Market cap $500M–$5B

Catalysts 1 of 2

Active 13DNo
0 filings
Active-intent 13D in 18 months
Net insider sellingYes
−$82M net
Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Financials

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	Trend
Revenue	$18.5B	$19.3B	$6.8B	$3.2B	$1.9B	40%
Operating income	$13.3B	$9.4B	−$4.2B	−$3.9B	−$3.1B	22%
Net income	$12.2B	$8.4B	−$4.7B	−$3.6B	−$2.8B	21%
Operating cash flow	$13.6B	$5.0B	−$3.1B	−$3.0B	−$1.9B	38%
Capex	$284M	$400M	$707M	$1.1B	$192M	82%
Stock-based comp	$142M	$226M	$305M	$429M	$483M	13%
Buybacks	$857M	$3.3B	$1.2B	$0	$2M

Deal filings

None.

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

Open-market buys, 12 mo: $0 · 0
Open-market sells, 12 mo: $82M · 22
Net: −$82M

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.