NEXTNextDecade Corp

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution

Revenue: $0
Operating margin: —
EBITDA: −$214M; 35% YoY
Market cap: $2.0B
Employees: 360
Net debt / EBITDA: —; $8.7B net debt
AI in 10-K: 0.2; mentions per 10K words

Takeover score 3 of 13

Fixable underperformance 0 of 7

TSR below peersNo
—
3+ of last 5 years
High CEO pay despite TSRNo
$11M median
Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
Earnings not backed by cashNo
—
Cash flow under 80% of net income
Dilutive SBCNo
—
Over 10% of revenue
Payouts exceed cash flowNo
-11% of cash flow
Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
Goodwill-heavyNo
—
Over 40% of assets
Shareholder dissentNo
89% lowest support
Any vote under 80% support

Buyer economics 2 of 4

Low revenue per employeeNo
—
Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
Quiet on AIYes
0.2 per 10K words · 12th pct
Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
Net cashNo
—
More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
Buyout-sizedYes
$2.0B market cap
Market cap $500M–$5B

Catalysts 1 of 2

Active 13DYes
1 filing
Active-intent 13D in 18 months
Net insider sellingNo
$47M net
Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Financials

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	Trend
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Operating income	−$20M	−$54M	−$123M	−$171M	−$226M	32%
Net income	−$40M	−$84M	−$183M	−$62M	−$306M	396%
Operating cash flow	−$18M	−$40M	−$74M	−$96M	−$169M	77%
Capex	$12M	$34M	$1.7B	$2.6B	$4.8B	89%
Stock-based comp	−$4M	$7M	$27M	$20M	$39M	97%
Buybacks	$284K	$3M	$10M	$7M	$17M	153%

Deal filings

Filed	Form	Acquirer	Price	Premium
Jun 29, 2017	DEFM14A	—	$10.35	—
May 9, 2017	PREM14A	—	$10.21	10.2112%

13D filers

Filed	Filer	Form	Stake	Intent
Jun 10, 2026	GAP Holdings GP, LLC	SCHEDULE 13D	11.8%	Active
Dec 11, 2025	HGC Next Inv LLC	SCHEDULE 13D/A	8.8%	Passive
Nov 20, 2025	HGC Next Inv LLC	SCHEDULE 13D/A	8.8%	Passive
May 15, 2025	VALINOR MANAGEMENT, L.P.	SCHEDULE 13D/A	0.7%	Passive
Jan 21, 2025	VALINOR MANAGEMENT, L.P.	SCHEDULE 13D/A	0.9%	Passive
Jul 31, 2024	HGC Next Inv LLC	SC 13D/A	9.1%	Passive
Jul 29, 2024	York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLC	SC 13D/A	1.7%	Passive
Jun 17, 2024	York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLC	SC 13D/A	—	Passive
Jun 17, 2024	HGC Next Inv LLC	SC 13D/A	9.1%	Active
May 24, 2024	York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLC	SC 13D/A	15.2%	Passive

Insider trading

Open-market buys, 12 mo: $47M · 23
Open-market sells, 12 mo: $0 · 0
Net: $47M

Pay vs performance

Year	CEO total comp	Comp actually paid	TSR (indexed)	Peer TSR
FY2025	$13M	$6M	252	—
FY2024	$5M	$17M	369	—
FY2023	$12M	$14M	228	—
FY2022	$11M	$15M	236	—
FY2021	$9M	$9M	136	—