OSGOCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC

Surety Insurance

Revenue: $143M; 56% YoY
Operating margin: —
EBITDA: —
Market cap: $227M
Employees: 275; $521K revenue each
Net debt / EBITDA: —; $128M net debt
AI in 10-K: 0.4; mentions per 10K words

Takeover score 4 of 13

Fixable underperformance 2 of 7

TSR below peersYes
5 of 5 years
3+ of last 5 years
High CEO pay despite TSRNo
$7M median
Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
Earnings not backed by cashNo
—
Cash flow under 80% of net income
Dilutive SBCNo
7% of revenue
Over 10% of revenue
Payouts exceed cash flowNo
-57% of cash flow
Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
Goodwill-heavyNo
23% of assets
Over 40% of assets
Shareholder dissentYes
70% lowest support
Any vote under 80% support

Buyer economics 2 of 4

Low revenue per employeeYes
$521K · 19th pct
Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
Quiet on AIYes
0.4 per 10K words · 19th pct
Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
Net cashNo
—
More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
Buyout-sizedNo
$227M market cap
Market cap $500M–$5B

Catalysts 0 of 2

Active 13DNo
0 filings
Active-intent 13D in 18 months
Net insider sellingNo
$91K net
Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Financials

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY	Trend
Revenue	$26M	$31M	$51M	$92M	$143M	56%
Net income	−$17M	$522M	$5M	−$556M	−$259M	53%
Operating cash flow	−$131M	$1.3B	$200M	$762K	−$52M	6961%
Stock-based comp	$14M	$11M	$12M	$9M	$10M	3.8%
Buybacks	—	$14M	$5M	$12M	$30M	156%

Deal filings

Filed	Form	Acquirer	Price	Premium
Sep 6, 2024	DEFM14A	Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.	$420.00	30%
Aug 2, 2024	PREM14A	Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.	$420.00	30%

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

Open-market buys, 12 mo: $91K · 2
Open-market sells, 12 mo: $0 · 0
Net: $91K

Pay vs performance

Year	CEO total comp	Comp actually paid	TSR (indexed)	Peer TSR
FY2025	$10M	$7M	51	126
FY2024	$6M	$2M	59	150
FY2023	$7M	$7M	76	130
FY2022	$6M	$10M	81	105
FY2021	$7M	$8M	75	145