TakeoverPE & activists

AAAlcoa Corp

Primary Production Of Aluminum · $10.3B market cap · 14,900 employees

0.4×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 41% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    102% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    0% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    9% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    0% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    94% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $861K · 67th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $10.3B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    —
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    —
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$1M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Jun 6, 2024DEFM14AAAC Investments Australia 2 Pty Ltd$42.5973.5%

Key numbers

Revenue
$12.8BFY2021: $12.2BFY2022: $12.5BFY2023: $10.6BFY2024: $11.9BFY2025: $12.8B
7.9% YoY
Operating margin
—
EBITDA
—
Net debt / EBITDA
—
$413M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$12.2B$12.5B$10.6B$11.9B$12.8B 7.9% FY2021: $12.2BFY2022: $12.5BFY2023: $10.6BFY2024: $11.9BFY2025: $12.8B
Net income$429M−$123M−$651M$60M$1.2B 1828% FY2021: $429MFY2022: −$123MFY2023: −$651MFY2024: $60MFY2025: $1.2B
Operating cash flow$920M$822M$91M$622M$1.2B 91% FY2021: $920MFY2022: $822MFY2023: $91MFY2024: $622MFY2025: $1.2B
Capex$390M$480M$531M$580M$618M 6.6% FY2021: $390MFY2022: $480MFY2023: $531MFY2024: $580MFY2025: $618M
Stock-based comp$39M$40M$35M$36M$41M 14% FY2021: $39MFY2022: $40MFY2023: $35MFY2024: $36MFY2025: $41M
Buybacks$150M$500M$0$0—FY2021: $150MFY2022: $500MFY2023: $0FY2024: $0
Dividends$19M$72M$72M$89M$104M 17% FY2021: $19MFY2022: $72MFY2023: $72MFY2024: $89MFY2025: $104M

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

−$1Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $1M · 4 trades

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.