TakeoverPE & activists

ADTADT Inc.

Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services · $7.6B market cap · 12,200 employees

3.7×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 2% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $9M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    316% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    42% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    32% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $420K · 47th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    13.1 per 10K words · 95th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    2.8× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $7.6B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    4 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $526K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 29, 20268-KThrive Holdings——

Key numbers

Revenue
$5.1BFY2021: $4.2BFY2022: $4.4BFY2023: $4.7BFY2024: $4.9BFY2025: $5.1B
4.7% YoY
Operating margin
25.5%FY2021: 0.2%FY2022: 16.5%FY2023: 25.3%FY2024: 24.7%FY2025: 25.5%
3.5% YoY
EBITDA
$2.7BFY2021: $1.8BFY2022: $2.3BFY2023: $2.5BFY2024: $2.6BFY2025: $2.7B
4.9% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
2.8×
$7.4B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$4.2B$4.4B$4.7B$4.9B$5.1B 4.7% FY2021: $4.2BFY2022: $4.4BFY2023: $4.7BFY2024: $4.9BFY2025: $5.1B
Operating income$10M$725M$1.2B$1.2B$1.3B 8.3% FY2021: $10MFY2022: $725MFY2023: $1.2BFY2024: $1.2BFY2025: $1.3B
Net income−$341M$133M$463M$501M$596M 19% FY2021: −$341MFY2022: $133MFY2023: $463MFY2024: $501MFY2025: $596M
Operating cash flow$1.6B$1.9B$1.7B$1.9B$1.9B 0.0% FY2021: $1.6BFY2022: $1.9BFY2023: $1.7BFY2024: $1.9BFY2025: $1.9B
Capex$168M$177M$176M$164M$176M 7.3% FY2021: $168MFY2022: $177MFY2023: $176MFY2024: $164MFY2025: $176M
Stock-based comp$61M$67M$51M$49M$55M 12% FY2021: $61MFY2022: $67MFY2023: $51MFY2024: $49MFY2025: $55M
Buybacks$0$1.2B$0$241M$607M 152% FY2021: $0FY2022: $1.2BFY2023: $0FY2024: $241MFY2025: $607M
Dividends$116M$127M$129M$182M$187M 2.5% FY2021: $116MFY2022: $127MFY2023: $129MFY2024: $182MFY2025: $187M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Aug 11, 2026STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSCHEDULE 13D/A19.7%Passive
Jun 10, 2026STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSCHEDULE 13D/A18.1%Passive
Apr 15, 2025STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSCHEDULE 13D/A16.8%Passive
Nov 14, 2024Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCSC 13G/A—Passive
Feb 28, 2024Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCSC 13G/A57.5%Passive
Feb 13, 2024Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCSC 13G/A57.5%Passive
Feb 13, 2023Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCSC 13G/A58.0%Passive
Feb 10, 2023STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSC 13D/A15.5%Passive
Jan 31, 2023STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSC 13G15.5%Passive
Nov 16, 2022STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COSC 13D/A15.5%Passive

Insider trading

+$526Knet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $526K · 6 tradesSold $0 · 0 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025$15M$15M115142
FY2024$16M$17M96134
FY2023$9M$1M92124
FY2022$9M$11M120106
FY2021$7M$10M109127