TakeoverPE & activists

ADVAdvantage Solutions Inc.

Services-Business Services, NEC · $388M market cap

1.6×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 9% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    -0% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    1% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    17% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    98% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    —
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    5.4 per 10K words · 84th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    19.6× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $388M market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    5 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    4 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $369K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 9, 2020DEFM14ACenterview Capital$10.00100%
Sep 10, 2020PREM14ACVC Capital Partners, Leonard Green & Partners, Juggernaut Capital Partners, Centerview Capital$10.00100%

Key numbers

Revenue
$3.5BFY2021: $3.6BFY2022: $3.6BFY2023: $3.9BFY2024: $3.6BFY2025: $3.5B
0.7% YoY
Operating margin
-3.6%FY2021: 6.4%FY2022: -41.0%FY2023: 1.2%FY2024: -8.3%FY2025: -3.6%
57% YoY
EBITDA
$76MFY2021: $470MFY2022: −$1.3BFY2023: $255MFY2024: −$90MFY2025: $76M
184% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
19.6×
$1.5B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$3.6B$3.6B$3.9B$3.6B$3.5B 0.7% FY2021: $3.6BFY2022: $3.6BFY2023: $3.9BFY2024: $3.6BFY2025: $3.5B
Operating income$230M−$1.5B$47M−$295M−$126M 57% FY2021: $230MFY2022: −$1.5BFY2023: $47MFY2024: −$295MFY2025: −$126M
Net income$54M−$1.4B−$63M−$327M−$228M 30% FY2021: $54MFY2022: −$1.4BFY2023: −$63MFY2024: −$327MFY2025: −$228M
Operating cash flow$126M$105M$228M$93M$62M 34% FY2021: $126MFY2022: $105MFY2023: $228MFY2024: $93MFY2025: $62M
Capex$31M$12M$21M$8M$6M 17% FY2021: $31MFY2022: $12MFY2023: $21MFY2024: $8MFY2025: $6M
Stock-based comp−$15M−$7M−$3M$723K−$2M 311% FY2021: −$15MFY2022: −$7MFY2023: −$3MFY2024: $723KFY2025: −$2M
Buybacks$13M$0$6M$34M$869K 97% FY2021: $13MFY2022: $0FY2023: $6MFY2024: $34MFY2025: $869K

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
May 18, 2026Karman Topco L.P.SCHEDULE 13D/A52.6%Passive
May 1, 2024Karman Topco L.P.SC 13D/A55.8%Passive
Nov 8, 2023Karman Topco L.P.SC 13D/A57.2%Passive
Sep 19, 2023Karman Topco L.P.SC 13D/A59.4%Passive
Jan 20, 2021Karman Topco L.P.SC 13D/A65.6%Passive
Nov 12, 2020Karman Topco L.P.SC 13D65.0%Active

Insider trading

+$369Knet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $369K · 9 tradesSold $0 · 0 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025——7116
FY2024——22118
FY2023——27107
FY2022——16111
FY2021——61114