TakeoverPE & activists

ALOYREALLOYS INC.

Metal Mining · $459M market cap

3.0×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 3% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    -3% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    1% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    100% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    —
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $459M market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    1 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$3M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Dec 11, 20258-KBlackboxstocks Inc.——
Aug 22, 20258-KBlackboxstocks Inc.——
Jul 1, 20258-KBlackboxstocks Inc.——

Key numbers

Revenue
$2MFY2021: $6MFY2022: $5MFY2023: $3MFY2024: $3MFY2025: $2M
5.3% YoY
Operating margin
-165.7%FY2021: -37.3%FY2022: -91.7%FY2023: -170.6%FY2024: -128.9%FY2025: -165.7%
29% YoY
EBITDA
−$4MFY2021: −$2MFY2022: −$5MFY2023: −$5MFY2024: −$3MFY2025: −$4M
22% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
—
$1M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$6M$5M$3M$3M$2M 5.3% FY2021: $6MFY2022: $5MFY2023: $3MFY2024: $3MFY2025: $2M
Operating income−$2M−$5M−$5M−$3M−$4M 22% FY2021: −$2MFY2022: −$5MFY2023: −$5MFY2024: −$3MFY2025: −$4M
Net income−$3M−$5M−$5M−$3M−$4M 28% FY2021: −$3MFY2022: −$5MFY2023: −$5MFY2024: −$3MFY2025: −$4M
Operating cash flow−$672K−$4M−$3M−$706K−$3M 348% FY2021: −$672KFY2022: −$4MFY2023: −$3MFY2024: −$706KFY2025: −$3M
Capex$64K$66K$3K$0—FY2021: $64KFY2022: $66KFY2023: $3KFY2024: $0
Stock-based comp$685K$482K$1M$369K$1M 270% FY2021: $685KFY2022: $482KFY2023: $1MFY2024: $369KFY2025: $1M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Jun 23, 2025Quadrifoglio Holdings LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A4.8%Passive
Oct 23, 2024Quadrifoglio Holdings LLCSC 13D8.2%Passive

Insider trading

−$3Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $3M · 8 trades

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.