TakeoverPE & activists

BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

Services-Prepackaged Software · $1.2B market cap · 579 employees

0.8×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 24% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    0 of 3 years
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    0% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    21% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    82% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Quiet on AINo
    12.2 per 10K words · 94th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Recurring revenueNo
    5 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    3 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$662K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Jan 29, 2024DEFM14APangiam Ultimate Holdings, LLC$1.3433.05%
Jan 16, 2024PREM14APangiam Ultimate Holdings, LLC$1.3433.12%
Nov 5, 2021DEFM14AGigAcquisitions4, LLC$13.12100%
Aug 9, 2021PREM14A—$11.5010.43%

Key numbers

Revenue
$128MFY2021: $146MFY2022: $155MFY2023: $155MFY2024: $158MFY2025: $128M
19% YoY
Operating margin
-167.5%FY2021: -53.9%FY2022: -71.3%FY2023: -25.2%FY2024: -84.3%FY2025: -167.5%
99% YoY
EBITDA
−$199MFY2021: −$71MFY2022: −$103MFY2023: −$31MFY2024: −$122MFY2025: −$199M
63% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
—
−$60M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$146M$155M$155M$158M$128M 19% FY2021: $146MFY2022: $155MFY2023: $155MFY2024: $158MFY2025: $128M
Operating income−$78M−$111M−$39M−$133M−$214M 60% FY2021: −$78MFY2022: −$111MFY2023: −$39MFY2024: −$133MFY2025: −$214M
Net income−$124M−$111M−$71M−$296M−$294M 0.7% FY2021: −$124MFY2022: −$111MFY2023: −$71MFY2024: −$296MFY2025: −$294M
Operating cash flow−$20M−$49M−$18M−$38M−$42M 10% FY2021: −$20MFY2022: −$49MFY2023: −$18MFY2024: −$38MFY2025: −$42M
Capex$645K$769K$2K$484K$525K 8.5% FY2021: $645KFY2022: $769KFY2023: $2KFY2024: $484KFY2025: $525K
Stock-based comp$61M$11M$19M$21M$23M 10% FY2021: $61MFY2022: $11MFY2023: $19MFY2024: $21MFY2025: $23M
Buybacks$0$101M$0$0—FY2021: $0FY2022: $101MFY2023: $0FY2024: $0

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Apr 10, 2025AEROEQUITY GP, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A0.2%Passive
Mar 27, 2025AEROEQUITY GP, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A19.2%Passive
Mar 18, 2025AEROEQUITY GP, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A22.1%Passive
Mar 14, 2025AEROEQUITY GP, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A28.3%Passive
Mar 11, 2025PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A32.4%Passive
Mar 7, 2025PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A37.0%Passive
Mar 5, 2025PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A43.6%Passive
Dec 30, 2024BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A25.5%Passive
Dec 20, 2024BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A2.3%Passive
Dec 18, 2024BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A3.5%Passive

Insider trading

−$662Knet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $662K · 6 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025——802287
FY2024——661216
FY2023——318158