TakeoverPE & activists

COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.

Pharmaceutical Preparations · $5.3B market cap · 500 employees

1.1×

About as likely as average to be taken private

Top 16% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    2 of 4 years
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $6M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    0% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    —
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    84% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $16K · 26th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $5.3B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    —
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    —
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 9, 2020DEFM14AKiq Bio LLC$104401000.00100%

Key numbers

Revenue
—
Operating margin
—
EBITDA
−$331MFY2021: −$75MFY2022: −$147MFY2023: −$206MFY2024: −$273MFY2025: −$331M
21% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
—
$42M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Operating income−$76M−$148M−$208M−$276M−$333M 21% FY2021: −$76MFY2022: −$148MFY2023: −$208MFY2024: −$276MFY2025: −$333M
Net income−$72M−$140M−$192M−$256M−$329M 29% FY2021: −$72MFY2022: −$140MFY2023: −$192MFY2024: −$256MFY2025: −$329M
Operating cash flow−$59M−$119M−$154M−$208M−$264M 27% FY2021: −$59MFY2022: −$119MFY2023: −$154MFY2024: −$208MFY2025: −$264M
Capex$2M$7M$3M$573K$2M 171% FY2021: $2MFY2022: $7MFY2023: $3MFY2024: $573KFY2025: $2M
Stock-based comp$12M$18M$31M$40M$46M 16% FY2021: $12MFY2022: $18MFY2023: $31MFY2024: $40MFY2025: $46M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Mar 31, 2026Fairmount Funds Management LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A8.6%Passive
Jan 22, 2026Fairmount Funds Management LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A9.9%Passive
Nov 17, 2025Fairmount Funds Management LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A9.9%Passive
Jul 14, 2025Fairmount Funds Management LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A9.9%Passive
Jun 13, 2024Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A9.9%Passive
Apr 1, 2024Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A9.9%Passive
Mar 27, 2024Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A24.0%Passive
Feb 16, 2024Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A18.9%Passive
Jun 13, 2023Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A4.8%Passive
Jun 21, 2022Fairmount Funds Management LLCSC 13D/A50.0%Passive

Insider trading

−$384Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $384M · 8 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025$28M$117M414121
FY2024$5M$12M9191
FY2023$8M−$202K6992
FY2022$4M$10M13589