TakeoverPE & activists

CTOCTO Realty Growth, Inc.

Real Estate Investment Trusts · $764M market cap

1.3×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 12% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    0 of 5 years
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $3M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    25× net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    3% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    90% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    —
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    98% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    —
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    2.8 per 10K words · 67th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    7.5× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Recurring revenueNo
    —
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    —
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $0 net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 19, 2020DEFM14A—$42.7520%

Key numbers

Revenue
$150MFY2021: $13MFY2022: $5MFY2023: $4MFY2024: $125MFY2025: $150M
20% YoY
Operating margin
22.7%FY2021: 173.9%FY2022: 195.3%FY2023: 665.3%FY2024: 14.1%FY2025: 22.7%
61% YoY
EBITDA
$94MFY2021: $44MFY2022: $40MFY2023: $71MFY2024: $83MFY2025: $94M
14% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
7.5×
$709M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$13M$5M$4M$125M$150M 20% FY2021: $13MFY2022: $5MFY2023: $4MFY2024: $125MFY2025: $150M
Operating income$23M$11M$27M$18M$34M 93% FY2021: $23MFY2022: $11MFY2023: $27MFY2024: $18MFY2025: $34M
Net income$28M−$2M$758K−$9M$3M 129% FY2021: $28MFY2022: −$2MFY2023: $758KFY2024: −$9MFY2025: $3M
Operating cash flow$28M$56M$46M$60M$65M 7.9% FY2021: $28MFY2022: $56MFY2023: $46MFY2024: $60MFY2025: $65M
Capex$257M$385M———FY2021: $257MFY2022: $385M
Stock-based comp$3M$3M$4M$4M$4M 14% FY2021: $3MFY2022: $3MFY2023: $4MFY2024: $4MFY2025: $4M
Buybacks$2M$3M$6M$664K$9M 1309% FY2021: $2MFY2022: $3MFY2023: $6MFY2024: $664KFY2025: $9M
Dividends$24M$29M$34M$40M$49M 22% FY2021: $24MFY2022: $29MFY2023: $34MFY2024: $40MFY2025: $49M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Apr 11, 2019Wintergreen Advisers, LLCSC 13D/A0.0%Passive

Insider trading

No open-market trades in the last 12 months.

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025$4M$4M196122
FY2024$3M$4M193124
FY2023$3M$2M156120
FY2022$2M$2M151111
FY2021$2M$5M157130