FORForestar Group Inc.
Real Estate · $1.2B market cap · 393 employees
1.0×
About as likely as average to be taken private
Top 19% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works
Takeover signals
What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.
2of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
- Earnings not backed by cashYes-118% of net incomeCash flow under 80% of net income
- Buyout-sizedYes$1.2B market capMarket cap $500M–$5B
13 other checks
- TSR below peersNo—3+ of last 5 years
- High CEO pay despite TSRNo—Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
- Dilutive SBCNo0% of revenueOver 10% of revenue
- Payouts exceed cash flowNo0% of cash flowBuybacks + dividends over cash flow
- Goodwill-heavyNo0% of assetsOver 40% of assets
- Shareholder dissentNo98% lowest supportAny vote under 80% support
- Low revenue per employeeNo$4M · 73rd pctBottom quartile of its SIC industry
- Quiet on AINo1.3 per 10K words · 41st pctBottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
- Net cashNo8.8× EBITDA net debtMore cash than debt, positive EBITDA
- Recurring revenueNo4 of 1010-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
- AI-rollup shapedNo1 of 1010-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
- Active 13DNo0 filingsActive-intent 13D in 18 months
- Net insider sellingNo−$157K netNet sales over $10M in 12 months
Deal filings
| Filed | Form | Acquirer | Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2017 | DEFM14A | Terra Firma Merger Parent, L.P. | $14.25 | 8.2% |
| May 19, 2017 | PREM14A | Terra Firma Merger Parent, L.P. | $14.25 | 8.2% |
Key numbers
- Revenue
- $1.5B
- 5.8% YoY
- Operating margin
- —
- EBITDA
- —
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
- $399M net debt
Financials
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.5B | 5.8% |
| Net income | $110M | $179M | $167M | $203M | $168M | 17% |
| Operating cash flow | −$303M | $109M | $364M | −$158M | −$198M | 25% |
| Capex | $2M | $4M | $1M | $2M | $2M | 0.0% |
| Stock-based comp | $3M | $3M | $4M | $5M | $7M | 38% |
13D filers
None on file.
Insider trading
−$157Knet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $157K · 2 trades
Pay vs performance
No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.