TakeoverPE & activists

IPINTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/

Paper Mills · $22.8B market cap · 62,602 employees

0.2×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 51% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

0of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →

No signals fired.

15 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    —
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    61% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    14% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    97% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $378K · 25th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    1.9 per 10K words · 54th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    2.5× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $22.8B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    4 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    0 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $2M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Sep 12, 2024DEFM14A—$415.0047.7%

Key numbers

Revenue
$23.6BFY2021: $19.4BFY2022: $21.2BFY2023: $16.0BFY2024: $15.8BFY2025: $23.6B
49% YoY
Operating margin
—
EBITDA
—
Net debt / EBITDA
—
$9.0B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$19.4B$21.2B$16.0B$15.8B$23.6B 49% FY2021: $19.4BFY2022: $21.2BFY2023: $16.0BFY2024: $15.8BFY2025: $23.6B
Net income$1.8B$1.5B$288M$557M−$3.5B 731% FY2021: $1.8BFY2022: $1.5BFY2023: $288MFY2024: $557MFY2025: −$3.5B
Operating cash flow$2.0B$2.2B$1.8B$1.7B$1.7B 1.2% FY2021: $2.0BFY2022: $2.2BFY2023: $1.8BFY2024: $1.7BFY2025: $1.7B
Capex$480M$931M$1.1B$921M$1.9B 102% FY2021: $480MFY2022: $931MFY2023: $1.1BFY2024: $921MFY2025: $1.9B
Buybacks$839M$1.3B$218M$23M$65M 183% FY2021: $839MFY2022: $1.3BFY2023: $218MFY2024: $23MFY2025: $65M
Dividends$780M$673M$642M$643M$977M 52% FY2021: $780MFY2022: $673MFY2023: $642MFY2024: $643MFY2025: $977M

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

+$2Mnet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $4M · 5 tradesSold $2M · 3 trades

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.