TakeoverPE & activists

KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Beverages · $48.8B market cap · 30,600 employees

0.2×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 48% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    1 of 5 years
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    96% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    63% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    34% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    96% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $543K · 29th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    0.4× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $48.8B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    4 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    0 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$1M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
May 29, 2018DEFM14AJAB Holding Company S.à r.l.$66.0077.9%
Mar 8, 2018PREM14AMaple Holdings B.V.$103.7530.5%

Key numbers

Revenue
$16.6BFY2021: $12.7BFY2022: $14.1BFY2023: $14.8BFY2024: $15.4BFY2025: $16.6B
8.2% YoY
Operating margin
21.5%FY2021: 22.8%FY2022: 18.5%FY2023: 21.5%FY2024: 16.9%FY2025: 21.5%
28% YoY
EBITDA
$4.0BFY2021: $3.3BFY2022: $3.0BFY2023: $3.6BFY2024: $3.0BFY2025: $4.0B
34% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4×
$1.8B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$12.7B$14.1B$14.8B$15.4B$16.6B 8.2% FY2021: $12.7BFY2022: $14.1BFY2023: $14.8BFY2024: $15.4BFY2025: $16.6B
Operating income$2.9B$2.6B$3.2B$2.6B$3.6B 38% FY2021: $2.9BFY2022: $2.6BFY2023: $3.2BFY2024: $2.6BFY2025: $3.6B
Net income$2.1B$1.4B$2.2B$1.4B$2.1B 44% FY2021: $2.1BFY2022: $1.4BFY2023: $2.2BFY2024: $1.4BFY2025: $2.1B
Operating cash flow$2.9B$2.8B$1.3B$2.2B$2.0B 10% FY2021: $2.9BFY2022: $2.8BFY2023: $1.3BFY2024: $2.2BFY2025: $2.0B
Capex$423M$353M$425M$563M$486M 14% FY2021: $423MFY2022: $353MFY2023: $425MFY2024: $563MFY2025: $486M
Stock-based comp$88M$52M$116M$98M$97M 1.0% FY2021: $88MFY2022: $52MFY2023: $116MFY2024: $98MFY2025: $97M
Buybacks$0$379M$706M$1.1B$9M 99% FY2021: $0FY2022: $379MFY2023: $706MFY2024: $1.1BFY2025: $9M
Dividends$955M$1.1B$1.1B$1.2B$1.3B 4.7% FY2021: $955MFY2022: $1.1BFY2023: $1.1BFY2024: $1.2BFY2025: $1.3B

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
May 5, 2025JAB BevCo B.V.SCHEDULE 13D/A4.4%Passive
Feb 28, 2025JAB BevCo B.V.SCHEDULE 13D/A9.9%Passive
Oct 30, 2024JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A15.8%Passive
Mar 18, 2024JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A21.0%Passive
Mar 12, 2024JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A21.9%Passive
Mar 7, 2024JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A23.9%Passive
Mar 4, 2024JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A27.6%Passive
May 3, 2023JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A27.3%Passive
Mar 2, 2023Mondelez International, Inc.SC 13D/A3.2%Passive
Nov 14, 2022JAB BevCo B.V.SC 13D/A31.1%Passive

Insider trading

−$1Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $250K · 1 tradeSold $1M · 4 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025——99105
FY2024——110102
FY2023——111111
FY2022——116115
FY2021——117116