TakeoverPE & activists

NATLNCR Atleos Corp

Calculating & Accounting Machines (no Electronic Computers) · $3.4B market cap · 20,000 employees

2.0×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 6% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    220% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    8% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    35% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    98% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Quiet on AINo
    1.0 per 10K words · 33rd pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    3.0× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    2 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$308K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
May 27, 2026DEFM14AThe Brink's Company$35.2550.4%
Mar 12, 20268-KThe Brink's Company——
Feb 26, 20268-KThe Brink's Company——

Key numbers

Revenue
$4.4BFY2021: $3.5BFY2022: $4.1BFY2023: $4.2BFY2024: $4.3BFY2025: $4.4B
1.1% YoY
Operating margin
11.0%FY2021: 7.0%FY2022: 6.3%FY2023: 6.3%FY2024: 10.2%FY2025: 11.0%
8.2% YoY
EBITDA
$755MFY2021: $320MFY2022: $385MFY2023: $517MFY2024: $724MFY2025: $755M
4.3% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
3.0×
$2.3B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$3.5B$4.1B$4.2B$4.3B$4.4B 1.1% FY2021: $3.5BFY2022: $4.1BFY2023: $4.2BFY2024: $4.3BFY2025: $4.4B
Operating income$248M$258M$263M$437M$478M 9.4% FY2021: $248MFY2022: $258MFY2023: $263MFY2024: $437MFY2025: $478M
Net income$186M$99M−$150M$80M$162M 102% FY2021: $186MFY2022: $99MFY2023: −$150MFY2024: $80MFY2025: $162M
Operating cash flow$449M$274M$355M$344M$356M 3.5% FY2021: $449MFY2022: $274MFY2023: $355MFY2024: $344MFY2025: $356M
Capex$80M$58M$108M$87M$117M 34% FY2021: $80MFY2022: $58MFY2023: $108MFY2024: $87MFY2025: $117M
Stock-based comp$82M$66M$68M$38M$34M 11% FY2021: $82MFY2022: $66MFY2023: $68MFY2024: $38MFY2025: $34M
Buybacks——$0$0$28MFY2023: $0FY2024: $0FY2025: $28M

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

−$308Knet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $308K · 1 trade

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.