TakeoverPE & activists

NSCNORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP

Railroads, Line-Haul Operating · $77.0B market cap · 19,400 employees

0.1×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 56% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    152% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    40% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    —
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    94% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $628K per employee
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    1.7× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    $77.0B market cap
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    —
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    —
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $274K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 1, 2025DEFM14AUnion Pacific Corporation$88.8225%
Jul 29, 20258-KUnion Pacific Corporation——

Key numbers

Revenue
$12.2BFY2021: $11.1BFY2022: $12.7BFY2023: $12.2BFY2024: $12.1BFY2025: $12.2B
0.5% YoY
Operating margin
35.8%FY2021: 39.9%FY2022: 37.7%FY2023: 23.5%FY2024: 33.6%FY2025: 35.8%
6.5% YoY
EBITDA
$5.7BFY2021: $5.6BFY2022: $6.0BFY2023: $4.1BFY2024: $5.4BFY2025: $5.7B
6.0% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
1.7×
$9.5B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$11.1B$12.7B$12.2B$12.1B$12.2B 0.5% FY2021: $11.1BFY2022: $12.7BFY2023: $12.2BFY2024: $12.1BFY2025: $12.2B
Operating income$4.4B$4.8B$2.9B$4.1B$4.4B 7.0% FY2021: $4.4BFY2022: $4.8BFY2023: $2.9BFY2024: $4.1BFY2025: $4.4B
Net income$3.0B$3.3B$1.8B$2.6B$2.9B 9.6% FY2021: $3.0BFY2022: $3.3BFY2023: $1.8BFY2024: $2.6BFY2025: $2.9B
Operating cash flow$4.3B$4.2B$3.2B$4.1B$4.4B 7.6% FY2021: $4.3BFY2022: $4.2BFY2023: $3.2BFY2024: $4.1BFY2025: $4.4B
Capex$1.5B$1.9B$2.3B$2.4B$2.2B 7.4% FY2021: $1.5BFY2022: $1.9BFY2023: $2.3BFY2024: $2.4BFY2025: $2.2B
Stock-based comp$54M$53M$40M$40M$63M 57% FY2021: $54MFY2022: $53MFY2023: $40MFY2024: $40MFY2025: $63M
Buybacks$3.4B$3.1B$622M$0$534MFY2021: $3.4BFY2022: $3.1BFY2023: $622MFY2024: $0FY2025: $534M
Dividends$1.0B$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B 0.5% FY2021: $1.0BFY2022: $1.2BFY2023: $1.2BFY2024: $1.2BFY2025: $1.2B

13D filers

None on file.

Insider trading

+$274Knet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $527K · 2 tradesSold $253K · 1 trade

Pay vs performance

No pay-versus-performance disclosure yet.