TakeoverPE & activists

RXRXRECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

Biological Products, (no Diagnostic Substances) · $2.2B market cap · 600 employees

0.3×

Less likely than average to be taken private

Top 42% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $8M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    0% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    13% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    87% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $124K · 34th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    17.0 per 10K words · 97th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Recurring revenueNo
    2 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    0 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$8M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Oct 10, 2024DEFM14A—$39.4825%

Key numbers

Revenue
$75MFY2021: $10MFY2022: $40MFY2023: $45MFY2024: $59MFY2025: $75M
27% YoY
Operating margin
-867.9%FY2021: -1795.8%FY2022: -616.7%FY2023: -785.3%FY2024: -814.1%FY2025: -867.9%
6.6% YoY
EBITDA
−$564MFY2021: −$174MFY2022: −$234MFY2023: −$326MFY2024: −$443MFY2025: −$564M
28% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
—
−$550M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$10M$40M$45M$59M$75M 27% FY2021: $10MFY2022: $40MFY2023: $45MFY2024: $59MFY2025: $75M
Operating income−$183M−$246M−$350M−$479M−$648M 35% FY2021: −$183MFY2022: −$246MFY2023: −$350MFY2024: −$479MFY2025: −$648M
Net income−$186M−$239M−$328M−$464M−$645M 39% FY2021: −$186MFY2022: −$239MFY2023: −$328MFY2024: −$464MFY2025: −$645M
Operating cash flow−$159M−$84M−$288M−$359M−$372M 3.5% FY2021: −$159MFY2022: −$84MFY2023: −$288MFY2024: −$359MFY2025: −$372M
Capex$40M$37M$12M$14M$6M 53% FY2021: $40MFY2022: $37MFY2023: $12MFY2024: $14MFY2025: $6M
Stock-based comp$15M$28M$54M$82M$111M 36% FY2021: $15MFY2022: $28MFY2023: $54MFY2024: $82MFY2025: $111M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Dec 23, 2025Mubadala Investment Co PJSCSCHEDULE 13D/A0.0%Passive
Oct 31, 2022Mubadala Investment Co PJSCSC 13D/A6.3%Passive
Nov 4, 2021Mubadala Investment Co PJSCSC 13D/A5.5%Passive
Apr 26, 2021Mubadala Investment Co PJSCSC 13D5.7%Active

Insider trading

−$8Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $8M · 35 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025$10M$3M13123
FY2024$8M$2M2292
FY2023$9M$11M3293
FY2022$6M−$6M2589
FY2021$674K$22M5599