TakeoverPE & activists

STZCONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.

Beverages · 9,400 employees

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

1of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
14 other checks
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $15M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    158% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    61% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    24% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    95% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    $972K · 76th pct
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    2.3 per 10K words · 60th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    3.2× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Buyout-sizedNo
    —
    Market cap $500M–$5B
  • Recurring revenueNo
    2 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    0 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$1M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Sep 21, 2022SC 13E3/A———

Key numbers

Revenue
$9.1BFY2022: $8.8BFY2023: $9.5BFY2024: $10.0BFY2025: $10.2BFY2026: $9.1B
10% YoY
Operating margin
29.8%FY2022: 26.4%FY2023: 30.1%FY2024: 31.8%FY2025: 3.5%FY2026: 29.8%
757% YoY
EBITDA
$3.1BFY2022: $2.7BFY2023: $3.2BFY2024: $3.6BFY2025: $802MFY2026: $3.1B
292% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
3.2×
$10.1B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026YoYTrend
Revenue$8.8B$9.5B$10.0B$10.2B$9.1B 10% FY2022: $8.8BFY2023: $9.5BFY2024: $10.0BFY2025: $10.2BFY2026: $9.1B
Operating income$2.3B$2.8B$3.2B$355M$2.7B 667% FY2022: $2.3BFY2023: $2.8BFY2024: $3.2BFY2025: $355MFY2026: $2.7B
Net income−$40M−$71M$1.7B−$81M$1.7B 2172% FY2022: −$40MFY2023: −$71MFY2024: $1.7BFY2025: −$81MFY2026: $1.7B
Operating cash flow$2.7B$2.8B$2.8B$3.2B$2.7B 15% FY2022: $2.7BFY2023: $2.8BFY2024: $2.8BFY2025: $3.2BFY2026: $2.7B
Capex$1.0B$1.0B$1.3B$1.2B$875M 28% FY2022: $1.0BFY2023: $1.0BFY2024: $1.3BFY2025: $1.2BFY2026: $875M
Stock-based comp$45M$69M$64M$72M$68M 6.2% FY2022: $45MFY2023: $69MFY2024: $64MFY2025: $72MFY2026: $68M
Buybacks$1.4B$1.7B$250M$1.1B$924M 18% FY2022: $1.4BFY2023: $1.7BFY2024: $250MFY2025: $1.1BFY2026: $924M
Dividends$573M$588M$654M$732M$716M 2.2% FY2022: $573MFY2023: $588MFY2024: $654MFY2025: $732MFY2026: $716M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Dec 2, 2022SANDS RICHARD ET ALSC 13D/A13.8%Passive
Nov 16, 2022SANDS RICHARD ET ALSC 13D/A14.8%Passive
Nov 14, 2022SANDS RICHARD ET ALSC 13D/A15.8%Passive
Apr 4, 2022SANDS RICHARD ET ALSC 13D/A4.0%Active

Insider trading

−$1Mnet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $0 · 0 tradesSold $1M · 3 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2026$14M$11M80167
FY2025$15M−$854K87144
FY2024$15M$19M121126
FY2023$16M$16M107129
FY2022$12M$5M102125