TakeoverPE & activists

UPBDUPBOUND GROUP, INC.

Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC · $1.2B market cap

1.5×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 9% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

2of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
13 other checks
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    —
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    419% of net income
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    1% of revenue
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    29% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    16% of assets
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    97% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    —
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Quiet on AINo
    4.1 per 10K words · 79th pct
    Bottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
  • Net cashNo
    0.2× EBITDA net debt
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Recurring revenueNo
    6 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    1 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Active 13DNo
    0 filings
    Active-intent 13D in 18 months
  • Net insider sellingNo
    −$6K net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Aug 15, 2018DEFM14AVintage Capital Management, LLC$15.0025%
Jul 16, 2018PREM14AVintage Rodeo Parent, LLC$15.0025%

Key numbers

Revenue
$4.7BFY2021: $4.6BFY2022: $4.2BFY2023: $4.0BFY2024: $4.3BFY2025: $4.7B
8.7% YoY
Operating margin
4.8%FY2021: 6.1%FY2022: 3.5%FY2023: 4.1%FY2024: 6.7%FY2025: 4.8%
30% YoY
EBITDA
$275MFY2021: $348MFY2022: $202MFY2023: $214MFY2024: $343MFY2025: $275M
20% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2×
$67M net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$4.6B$4.2B$4.0B$4.3B$4.7B 8.7% FY2021: $4.6BFY2022: $4.2BFY2023: $4.0BFY2024: $4.3BFY2025: $4.7B
Operating income$281M$149M$163M$292M$223M 23% FY2021: $281MFY2022: $149MFY2023: $163MFY2024: $292MFY2025: $223M
Net income$135M$12M−$5M$124M$73M 41% FY2021: $135MFY2022: $12MFY2023: −$5MFY2024: $124MFY2025: $73M
Operating cash flow$392M$468M$200M$105M$306M 192% FY2021: $392MFY2022: $468MFY2023: $200MFY2024: $105MFY2025: $306M
Capex$62M$61M$53M$56M$67M 19% FY2021: $62MFY2022: $61MFY2023: $53MFY2024: $56MFY2025: $67M
Stock-based comp$148M$159M$162M$36M$45M 26% FY2021: $148MFY2022: $159MFY2023: $162MFY2024: $36MFY2025: $45M
Buybacks$390M$75M$50M$0$0FY2021: $390MFY2022: $75MFY2023: $50MFY2024: $0FY2025: $0
Dividends$72M$79M$83M$82M$88M 6.8% FY2021: $72MFY2022: $79MFY2023: $83MFY2024: $82MFY2025: $88M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Dec 13, 2023Engaged Capital LLCSC 13D/A3.1%Passive
Dec 9, 2022Engaged Capital LLCSC 13D6.5%Passive
Jun 8, 2021Engaged Capital LLCSC 13D/A4.1%Passive
Aug 25, 2020Engaged Capital LLCSC 13D/A5.0%Passive
Mar 20, 2019Vintage Capital Management LLCSC 13D/A0.9%Passive
Mar 1, 2019Engaged Capital LLCSC 13D/A9.9%Passive

Insider trading

−$6Knet selling by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $183K · 8 tradesSold $189K · 1 trade

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025——82139
FY2024——128199
FY2023——142163
FY2022——90145
FY2021——179177