TakeoverPE & activists

NEXTNextDecade Corp

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution · $2.0B market cap · 360 employees

2.3×

More likely than average to be taken private

Top 5% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works

Takeover signals

What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.

3of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
12 other checks
  • TSR below peersNo
    —
    3+ of last 5 years
  • High CEO pay despite TSRNo
    $11M median
    Median CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
  • Earnings not backed by cashNo
    —
    Cash flow under 80% of net income
  • Dilutive SBCNo
    —
    Over 10% of revenue
  • Payouts exceed cash flowNo
    -11% of cash flow
    Buybacks + dividends over cash flow
  • Goodwill-heavyNo
    —
    Over 40% of assets
  • Shareholder dissentNo
    89% lowest support
    Any vote under 80% support
  • Low revenue per employeeNo
    —
    Bottom quartile of its SIC industry
  • Net cashNo
    —
    More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
  • Recurring revenueNo
    6 of 10
    10-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
  • AI-rollup shapedNo
    0 of 10
    10-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
  • Net insider sellingNo
    $47M net
    Net sales over $10M in 12 months

Deal filings

FiledFormAcquirerPricePremium
Jun 29, 2017DEFM14A—$10.35—
May 9, 2017PREM14A—$10.2110.2112%

Key numbers

Revenue
$0FY2021: $0FY2022: $0FY2023: $0FY2024: $0FY2025: $0
Operating margin
—
EBITDA
−$214MFY2021: −$19MFY2022: −$54MFY2023: −$116MFY2024: −$158MFY2025: −$214M
35% YoY
Net debt / EBITDA
—
$8.7B net debt

Financials

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoYTrend
Revenue$0$0$0$0$0FY2021: $0FY2022: $0FY2023: $0FY2024: $0FY2025: $0
Operating income−$20M−$54M−$123M−$171M−$226M 32% FY2021: −$20MFY2022: −$54MFY2023: −$123MFY2024: −$171MFY2025: −$226M
Net income−$40M−$84M−$183M−$62M−$306M 396% FY2021: −$40MFY2022: −$84MFY2023: −$183MFY2024: −$62MFY2025: −$306M
Operating cash flow−$18M−$40M−$74M−$96M−$169M 77% FY2021: −$18MFY2022: −$40MFY2023: −$74MFY2024: −$96MFY2025: −$169M
Capex$12M$34M$1.7B$2.6B$4.8B 89% FY2021: $12MFY2022: $34MFY2023: $1.7BFY2024: $2.6BFY2025: $4.8B
Stock-based comp−$4M$7M$27M$20M$39M 97% FY2021: −$4MFY2022: $7MFY2023: $27MFY2024: $20MFY2025: $39M
Buybacks$284K$3M$10M$7M$17M 153% FY2021: $284KFY2022: $3MFY2023: $10MFY2024: $7MFY2025: $17M

13D filers

FiledFilerFormStakeIntent
Jun 10, 2026GAP Holdings GP, LLCSCHEDULE 13D11.8%Active
Dec 11, 2025HGC Next Inv LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A8.8%Passive
Nov 20, 2025HGC Next Inv LLCSCHEDULE 13D/A8.8%Passive
May 15, 2025VALINOR MANAGEMENT, L.P.SCHEDULE 13D/A0.7%Passive
Jan 21, 2025VALINOR MANAGEMENT, L.P.SCHEDULE 13D/A0.9%Passive
Jul 31, 2024HGC Next Inv LLCSC 13D/A9.1%Passive
Jul 29, 2024York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLCSC 13D/A1.7%Passive
Jun 17, 2024York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLCSC 13D/A—Passive
Jun 17, 2024HGC Next Inv LLCSC 13D/A9.1%Active
May 24, 2024York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLCSC 13D/A15.2%Passive

Insider trading

+$47Mnet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $47M · 23 tradesSold $0 · 0 trades

Pay vs performance

YearCEO total compComp actually paidTSR (indexed)Peer TSR
FY2025$13M$6M252—
FY2024$5M$17M369—
FY2023$12M$14M228—
FY2022$11M$15M236—
FY2021$9M$9M136—