OSGOCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC
Surety Insurance · $227M market cap · 275 employees
2.6×
More likely than average to be taken private
Top 4% of the Russell 3000 for a buyout by a private-equity firm, holdco or insiders. How it works
Takeover signals
What an activist or buyer would see: cheap, overpaid, diluted or under pressure.
4of 15 firedHow well they predict deals →
- TSR below peersYes5 of 5 years3+ of last 5 years
- Shareholder dissentYes70% lowest supportAny vote under 80% support
- Low revenue per employeeYes$521K · 19th pctBottom quartile of its SIC industry
- Quiet on AIYes0.4 per 10K words · 19th pctBottom quartile of AI mentions in 10-Ks
11 other checks
- High CEO pay despite TSRNo$7M medianMedian CEO pay ≥ $15M while TSR trails
- Earnings not backed by cashNo—Cash flow under 80% of net income
- Dilutive SBCNo7% of revenueOver 10% of revenue
- Payouts exceed cash flowNo-57% of cash flowBuybacks + dividends over cash flow
- Goodwill-heavyNo23% of assetsOver 40% of assets
- Net cashNo—More cash than debt, positive EBITDA
- Buyout-sizedNo$227M market capMarket cap $500M–$5B
- Recurring revenueNo5 of 1010-K business scored 7+ of 10 for recurring revenue
- AI-rollup shapedNo4 of 1010-K business scored 5+ of 10 as an AI-rollup target
- Active 13DNo0 filingsActive-intent 13D in 18 months
- Net insider sellingNo$91K netNet sales over $10M in 12 months
Deal filings
| Filed | Form | Acquirer | Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2024 | DEFM14A | Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. | $420.00 | 30% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | PREM14A | Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. | $420.00 | 30% |
Key numbers
- Revenue
- $143M
- 56% YoY
- Operating margin
- —
- EBITDA
- —
- Net debt / EBITDA
- —
- $128M net debt
Financials
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26M | $31M | $51M | $92M | $143M | 56% |
| Net income | −$17M | $522M | $5M | −$556M | −$259M | 53% |
| Operating cash flow | −$131M | $1.3B | $200M | $762K | −$52M | 6961% |
| Stock-based comp | $14M | $11M | $12M | $9M | $10M | 3.8% |
| Buybacks | — | $14M | $5M | $12M | $30M | 156% |
13D filers
None on file.
Insider trading
+$91Knet buying by insiders, open market, last 12 months
Bought $91K · 2 tradesSold $0 · 0 trades
Pay vs performance
| Year | CEO total comp | Comp actually paid | TSR (indexed) | Peer TSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $10M | $7M | 51 | 126 |
| FY2024 | $6M | $2M | 59 | 150 |
| FY2023 | $7M | $7M | 76 | 130 |
| FY2022 | $6M | $10M | 81 | 105 |
| FY2021 | $7M | $8M | 75 | 145 |